By Collin Kane and Calder Woolums
Introduction
The planet earth is a complex organism. As political administrations and global communities continue to value profit over preservation and efficiency over environmentalism it is increasingly important to understand the arguments and opinions that shape this debate. In many ways global political bodies are making progressive regulations aimed at protecting a healthier global climate for future generations. At the same time some political administrations and corporate entities are arguing against regulation in favor of industry, commerce, and development. These complex debates are not limited to international governing bodies and corporate interest, in many ways it is everyday people who shape these debates and who at the same time will be the most affected if climate change continues to be unaddressed.
As we explore why it is that we disagree about climate change, it is important to understand not only the diverse range of opinions and arguments involved, but the people behind these beliefs. In conducting our climate change opinion survey we hope to construct a better representation of the people and beliefs behind the disagreements. By asking a few short questions about climate change and the opinions and perceptions within Portland, as well as its peripheral neighborhoods, we hope to yield data that will illuminate some of the reasons we seem to disagree about climate change. In order to more fully understand the climate change opinions of Portland in context we will compare our findings to data collected on the national scale. Reflecting on the patterns and trends that emerge in our data will allow us to get at the root of our disagreements on climate change. We hope these patterns will illuminate areas where all opinions can be compromised for the sake of a healthier climate future for everyone.
Procedures
Climate survey response data was gathered by ENVS students over a period of three weeks via convenience sampling in various locations around Portland. Our group surveyed our respective roommates as well as pedestrians in southeast Portland. Respondents were asked to rate their personal level of concern about climate change compared to other issues, on a scale 1-10 with ten being the highest level of concern. In order to reduce selection bias we attempted to survey everyone we encountered. Due to the relatively small population size (156 respondents) and lack of random sampling, our class data is not representative of the populations surveyed. However, the data we collected can still provide valuable insight to the extent to which Portland residents are concerned about climate change. We analyzed the data in Excel to obtain the mean, median, mode, and standard deviation of all responses. From here we compared means aggregated by perceived gender identification, age, race, and location (downtown vs. periphery). In order to compare our data to national statistics, we investigated a few Gallup polls related to Americans’ perception of global warming as a threat as well as the perceived cause of global warming.
Analysis
We discovered a wide range of responses to the question of how important climate change is, ranging from 2-10. Figure 1 demonstrates the distribution of responses, with frequency generally increasing as you move towards a higher level of concern. It’s interesting to note that 10 was the most commonly chosen response, indicating that a significant portion (26%) of our population believes that climate change is one of the most important issues of our time. A mean of 7.6 combined with a standard deviation of 2.2 indicates that 68% of those surveyed placed their level of concern between 5.4 and 9.8 out of ten.
Figure 2 compares the means as aggregated according to gender, age, race, and location. We found the means for males and females to be exactly the same (7.6), indicating that gender identification is not a significant indicator of level of concern over climate change. When looking at age as an indicator, we observed that respondents over 30 were slightly more concerned about climate change than their younger neighbors. This is a bit surprising as climate change is often thought of as an issue with which mostly younger people are concerned. However, it’s worthy to note that standard deviation values between 2 and 2.5 indicate that the observed difference in means is not significant.
When comparing means across race/ethnicity we observed the highest amount of concern from Black respondents, followed by Latin/White, and Asian respondents. Again, with high amounts of variance and low sample size especially within the racial categories, it’s difficult to say conclusively whether one’s race/ethnicity affects their level of concern for climate change. Finally, in looking at differences in responses based on geographical location, we found that respondents surveyed downtown showed a slightly higher level of concern for climate change as a pressing issue.
Figure 2 compares the means as aggregated according to gender, age, race, and location. We found the means for males and females to be exactly the same (7.6), indicating that gender identification is not a significant indicator of level of concern over climate change. When looking at age as an indicator, we observed that respondents over 30 were slightly more concerned about climate change than their younger neighbors. This is a bit surprising as climate change is often thought of as an issue with which mostly younger people are concerned. However, it’s worthy to note that standard deviation values between 2 and 2.5 indicate that the observed difference in means is not significant.
(Figure 2)
When comparing means across race/ethnicity we observed the highest amount of concern from Black respondents, followed by Latin/White, and Asian respondents. Again, with high amounts of variance and low sample size especially within the racial categories, it’s difficult to say conclusively whether one’s race/ethnicity affects their level of concern for climate change. Finally, in looking at differences in responses based on geographical location, we found that respondents surveyed downtown showed a slightly higher level of concern for climate change as a pressing issue.
Within the greater national context concern about “Global Warming” has fluctuated over the past 25 years. After a steady decline to 50% Greatly concerned, beginning in the early 1990s, national concern about global warming spiked to an all time high of 72% Greatly concerned by 2000. Over the next decade concern over global warming decreased until 2004 when it again lowered to around 51% greatly concerned. However, by 2008 it had increased again to 66% greatly concerned. The last data point indicates that as recently as 2016 the percent of Americans greatly concerned about global warming stood at 64%.
In relation to the cause of climate change the data collected from 2001 to 2016 indicates a steady increase in the opinion that human activities contribute to climate change. In 2001 61% of respondents felt that climate change was influenced by human activities. By 2016 that figure was up to 65%.
As we can see from the graph above opinions on the primary cause of climate change stayed relatively stable from 2001 to 2008. Then by 2010 were at their most polarized, with 50% of the sample population believing human activities were to blame for climate change and 46% believing its due to natural causes. The most interesting figure presented by this polling data is the spikes that occurred in 2016. As those who believe climate change is the result of human activities spikes to 65% there was also a noticeable downward spike in those who believe climate change is due to natural causes.
The national figures alone begin to complicate reductive understandings of why we disagree about climate change. The spikes in both figures in 2016 relative to the previous decade of polling data indicates to me a possible geopolitical connection to national perception of what causes climate change. The move in the second Gallup figure away from a 50/50 split towards a majority believing climate change is due to human activities is encouraging. Though the reasoning behind these changes when looking solely at national data are ultimately speculation.
Both the data produced by our climate change survey and the national data collected by Gallup can be better understood in conjunction with one another. By comparing the trends in our opinion survey and national data with the verbal responses we recorded, the reasons behind the disagreements become more approachable. Ultimately the national data confirms what we already know. As a nation we disagree strongly about what causes climate change and even more so when it comes to possible solutions. The survey data we recorded begins to explore the personal opinions behind the larger discourse. Providing pathways for growth and compromise within the existing arguments of climate change.
Conclusion
After reviewing our data we can conclude that the reasons we disagree about climate change are likely more complicated than the distinctions of age, gender, or race. We presented figures that depict limited variation in opinions across survey demographics. While responses are relatively skewed towards a greater concern about climate change on our scale from 1-10 there is not much evidence to support that differences in opinion can be explained simply by demographic categories. This complicates the discussion surrounding possible solutions to the stark disagreement over climate change. It appears the reasons behind these opinions are as diverse as the people who hold them. The most surprising result from our study is that even across seemingly distinct regional and demographic categories there is still variations in opinions that can not be easily explained.
National Data Sources:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/190010/concern-global-warming-eight-year-high.aspx