Framing question: How do transit-oriented development and revitalization plans shape the geography of property values, development, and equity?
Focus question: What effects have recent integrated land use-transportation plans in Portland had on property values and new construction, over the course of the planning and construction process? What policies are proposed to deal with potential displacement arising from these plans?
The major theoretical frameworks which I will employ in this investigation include: the rent gap, neoliberalism, the revanchist city, locational indifference, and the spatial fix. My major data sources will be the sales data for properties in Portland and the building footprint data, analyzed in conjunction with data on the location of transit stations and the distance via the street network to those stations. Additionally, I will use a variety of official City of Portland/Trimet sources, to contextualize the project timeline of rail lines, to investigate the extent of political consideration of transit-induced gentrification and assess the policies proposed to proactively deal with this association.
Golub, Guhathakurta, and Sollapuram’s 2012 article “Spatial and Temporal Capitalization Effects of Light Rail in Phoenix From Conception, Planning, and Construction to Operation” and Immergluck’s 2009 article “Large Redevelopment Initiatives, Housing Values and Gentrification: The Case of the Atlanta Beltline” illustrate appropriate methodologies for determining the relationship between housing prices and transit over time. Both are concerned explicitly with the planning and construction impacts on prices and use a hedonic model incorporating time as a variable. They measure the distance from transit stations/lines as the crow flies, seeking to determine the effect of proximity to planned transit on changes in property values, controlling for the characteristics of the houses themselves and for other locational qualities. Replicating this may prove fruitful, though it would require learning more about how to properly do a regression model.
A secondary methodology to pursue aligns with that of Jones and Ley’s 2016 article “Transit-oriented development and gentrification along Metro Vancouver’s low-income SkyTrain corridor,” which uses a predominately qualitative analysis to tell a narrative of how gentrification becomes a foregone conclusion accepted by municipal plans. They weave together contextualizing maps of socioeconomic status, focus group statements, statements at meetings concerning rezoning, and interviews with city council members into a rich explanatory tapestry. For my thesis, this methodology would consist of seeking out, presenting, and interpreting qualitative data concerning the intersection of transit plans, municipal growth agendas, and neighborhood priorities.