After some mental (and physical) exercise I have a slightly clearer idea of what I want to be looking for so that I can come up with a real researchable question and solid methodology. This week’s assignment, figure out what’s out there! Find the gaps!
There’s certainly quite a lot of information and I’m having some trouble pinning down my general interests so that I can even begin the search for resources. My main focus is on the effects that climate change will have on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest. Obviously there is particular concern about hydropower since such a significant part of the energy in the region is derived from hydroelectric dams. Hydrologic processes like melting of snowpack that feeds rivers and replenishment of groundwater seems to be what many articles are predicting that climate change will have the biggest impact on. There has been a consensus that seasonality will be the biggest actor on this stage. Because so much of the hydrology of the Pacific Northwest relies on snowpack, changes in amount of snowfall through out the year and when release of water stores occurs is a huge problem.
Models to project these changes are not very clear. Obviously the key problem with prediction is uncertainty. Nobel laureate in Physics Nils Bohr put it best “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” As far as climate change, a huge problem is quantifying changes in greenhouse gas emissions. Who knows how fast developing countries will develop? Or developed countries will cut back on emissions? Some articles propose helpful tips in choosing accurate climate models but still warn of uncertainty.
There is also emphasis on the importance of adaptation in the face of climate change. While mitigation techniques are necessary, it seems as though many scholars have moved to promoting adaptation as it does not seem like this now normalized state of global warming will be ending any time soon. There is a call for information from scientists to be tailored to the application of this knowledge in proposing and enacting climate change legislation. Action and therefore policy is the primary goal.
Where does that leave me?
Snow pack is a problem, models are unpredictable, policy is important.
The search continues!
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