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Researcher(s):
Richard Burnam-Fink
ENVS course(s): 400 Initiated: September 2011 Completed: May 2012 Go to project site
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A successful public transit system is vital to creating the dense urban areas needed to reduce resource consumption and carbon emissions from fossil fuels. Unfortunately, planning these systems is a difficult task, and misestimating ridership or population growth could lead to an ineffective transit system. Once a certain type of transit network is built it is hard to implement newer, better modes of transportation. For these reasons, it is vital to look at the effectiveness of the public transit planning process. This paper addresses the following questions: 1) How accurate have the estimates used in the planning of the original MAX system been? 2) How have newer MAX projects been planned differently? 3) Are there understandable causes behind inaccuracies and any differences between the historic and recent planning processes? 4) How does Portland compare to other cities in the accuracy of their public transit planning? The original estimates were rather inaccurate, but this accuracy was greatly improved in the plans for later projects. This increase is accuracy is from improvements in the planning process and possibly a lack of political need. Comparisons with similar transit projects in America shows that Portland’s planners are good, but not better than planners elsewhere. Although planning has become more accurate over time, it is likely that inaccuracies will always be greater for new technology. New methods, such as scenario planning which attempts to plan for multiple outcomes may be a way to avoid the pitfalls of previous planning techniques.